The collaborative military campaign targeting Iran by the United States and Israel has escalated multiple times since late February. Recent events have led to a significant disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, impacting about 15% of the global oil supply.
A recent comprehensive report from The Economist indicates that the American expectations of the outcomes of attacking Iran may not have been met. The analysis reveals that Tehran is currently earning nearly double the daily revenue from oil sales compared to pre-Gulf conflicts levels.
Iran is estimated to be shipping between 2.4 and 2.8 million barrels per day, maintaining similar levels to before the conflict. The key driver of increased profits is the 75% surge in the value of each barrel, projected to reach $104 per barrel in the near future.
China has emerged as the primary buyer of Iranian oil, accounting for over 90% of the purchases. Previously, smaller refineries obtained Iranian oil at discounted rates. However, with reduced supply from other Gulf nations due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, Iran has been able to increase its prices.
Transactions involving Iranian oil are processed through a network of shell companies and “trust accounts” based in China and Hong Kong, operating under fictitious names to obscure the money trail. The revenue generated from oil sales is channeled through various accounts in multiple countries to avoid detection.
The report raises concerns about the utilization of these funds, highlighting that oil revenues directly benefit the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), deeply entrenched in Iran’s oil sector. Approximately 20 influential figures control access to oil sales, making foreign interference in Iran’s oil affairs highly improbable.
The military coalition supports oil shipments by disabling tracking systems, providing false locations, and other tactics. Vessels must obtain approval codes from the IRGC before passing through the Strait of Hormuz and may be required to pay substantial tolls. Individual shipments can be valued at up to $200 million.
