In the previous federal election, the focus in Quebec shifted from defending the province’s interests to standing up for Canada against Donald Trump’s tariff threats and rhetoric about potentially incorporating Canada as the 51st state. The Liberals, led by Mark Carney, capitalized on this sentiment and achieved their best election result in the province in years, sidelining the Bloc Québécois.
The discussions around Quebec’s identity, secularism, and language were overshadowed by the noise coming from Washington during the election. As the provincial election commences, there is speculation about whether the U.S. president could once again play a significant role.
The recent imposition of tariffs dominated the pre-election campaign discussions, compelling all party leaders to demonstrate their ability to protect the province from the economic consequences. The economy in uncertain times appears to be a key concern for voters, according to Philippe Fournier, a polling analyst and the founder of Qc125.
Before the escalation of the trade war, polls indicated that healthcare, housing, and the cost of living were the primary issues on voters’ minds. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), facing discontent among the electorate after two terms in power, could benefit the most if economic stability becomes a priority for voters.
Quebec is projected to be heavily impacted by the new tariffs, given its reliance on automotive, metals, and manufacturing exports, as outlined in a recent report by Oxford Economics. Parti Québécois (PQ) leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, leading in opinion polls, reassured voters by stating that a referendum would not be called until the end of Trump’s second term.
CAQ Leader Christine Fréchette, in power during the upheaval, has announced financial aid programs targeted at sectors most affected by the tariffs. The CAQ aims to emulate the rise of Mark Carney after taking over an unpopular governing party, although the comparison has limitations.
Fréchette’s opponents are challenging the notion that she is best equipped to navigate the current situation. Québec Solidaire proposed a $1 billion annual “Trump provision” to support affected workers and businesses, while Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives pledged $47 billion in spending cuts and tax relief.
The leader who can effectively convey stability amidst the uncertainty brought by Donald Trump and the tariffs may gain an advantage in capturing the electorate, according to Fournier. The competition among the parties to address these challenges and win over voters is intensifying as the election unfolds.
