The El Niño weather pattern is projected to strengthen even further until 2027 and may reach unprecedented levels, heightening the likelihood of extreme weather events into the coming year, according to a statement by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Thursday.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated during a press briefing in Geneva that if the current trend persists, this El Niño event could surpass any recorded since monitoring began, surpassing the established standards of the past four decades.
The United Nations weather agency indicated that its projections indicate a nearly 100% certainty that El Niño will endure until February 2027, driven by remarkably warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This level of assurance is a first for the organization, as noted by the WMO.
A potent El Niño occurrence has the potential to significantly alter global precipitation and temperature patterns, contributing to the escalation of severe weather phenomena such as typhoons.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres highlighted the exceptional nature of the current El Niño event, emphasizing that scientific evidence unequivocally indicates the planet is entering uncharted territory and experiencing a rise in temperatures.
El Niño is a cyclic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean induced by weakened trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years and typically lasts up to 12 months, causing intense rainfall and droughts across Latin America.
The ongoing El Niño event has already impacted agricultural commodities in tropical regions, leading to a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor.
The WMO forecasted that El Niño is expected to peak by the end of this year but will continue to influence global temperatures into 2027, leaving a lasting impact, as per Saulo.
Saulo emphasized the WMO’s commitment to enhancing preparedness and early warning systems in anticipation of the potential effects, aiming to collaborate closely with partners within the United Nations and humanitarian sectors to provide essential climate insights for disaster management and climate-sensitive industries like agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.
